Nikon DSLR for 2009 estimate

Nikon always includes the date of release is strictly confidential, but based on past experience, here is our prediction for 2009. Note the slow economy and declining sales are slow release schedule for Nikon, but they also in a fight for the market to Canon, which puts pressure on them in other directions (50D n 'is not exactly light the world, but the 5D Mark II will get a lot of attention):

Pro body:

Nikon D3

D3 will turn 2 years before the end of the year, but still low light king (and based on past experience, it is usually 3-4 years between major upgrades of pro body). Prix de la D3 fell to $ 4k mark, so Nikon has to do something to get the price level back to around $ 5k mark, and this can improve the D3. We anticipate a D3h (or perhaps D3s) release, which is a D3 with the following characteristics:


Upgrade 2GB memory buffer, you can now get the D3 is standard.
The latest processors can improve EXPEED D3x provide a small improvement in IQ and slightly extend the duration of an impressive battery life.
Since D3 is primarily a tool for photojournalists, the ability to record video (1080p) is very useful in the field, but it means adding hardware video encoding and microphones, so it can be delayed until D4. This is a selling point for a specific market segment pro, if Nikon can add updates.
If the video is included, it can also lead to a sensor slightly improved (as was the case when D90 is launched on the basis of sensor D300)
Misc. Axis features / tweaks.
Priced at $ 5k, maybe $ 5.5k if video is included.

Nikon D3x

Other than the firmware version, hopefully device is unchanged, but with a steady decline in prices during the year.

Prosumer body:

Nikon D400

The D300 hits its second anniversary at the end of 2009, before it hit its second anniversary, we expect the D400 to be released. Hopefully the following:


Slight increase in megapixels - maybe 14MP with similar or slightly better capacity than the ISO D300.
A better dynamic than the D300 (from the D90 showed that they can improve it, add another sensor years of development into the equation).
The video is a must, probably 1080p.
What we want: to maintain compatibility with MB-D10, and remember to put a larger buffer - the choice for users of Nikon digital SLR telephoto most pro biggest buffer is very useful.
The price should be under $ 2k.

D700x/Nikon Nikon D800

Based on recent history, Nikon puts new sensors to the highest organs of last resort first, then the sensor is shown to the next level with the body, somewhere around 9 months to next, give or take a few months. Apparently D3x sensor in a D700-style body (D700x or D800), even during the summer of 2009. There are also lots of pressure from Sony (the A900) and Canon (with the 5D Mark II) in this space through the entire frame, so bring a competitive product on the market here has a heavy appeal. However, this leads to some basic questions:


The D3x is a little over a D3 with a new sensor, but the current street prices, costs around $ 4k more, this is an awful lot of premium for a sensor. Apply the same logic as the new camera if the price of a similar margin to the D700, it would make about $ 6k, which strictly limit their market and not be in the same market space such as Canon and Sony offering. Realistically, being a competitor, the camera should be much price of Canon and Sony - anywhere in the range of $ 3,000 to $ 3,500. If the price of IT $ 4k, then they will lose many potential markets.
If they make it to the price of $ 4k or less, that actually affects the D3x (requiring sealing time and extended battery life in the studio?)
To add a video or add video. To compete with Canon and their market, they need to add the video. But it adds video, hit D3x premium even more difficult.

One is a difficult decision to Nikon, there is a clear need for a cheaper D3x, they must protect their markets in light of the 5D Mark II and A900, but to determine the right price point is greatest challenge. Our theory is we see D3x sensor in any mid-year.

Consumption pattern:

Nikon D40 replacement

We hope to see early 2009, probably a 10.2MP sensor D200/D80/D60 line.

Nikon D60 replacement

A replacement for the Nikon D60 may be possible in late 2009, using the sensor of the D90, probably in video.

Nikon D90 update

The update Nikon D90 is possible in the second half of the year - could be called the D90s, almost the same device, but a more improved set of video features (autofocus, better exposure and even 1080p). It will also pave the way for a D60 with 720p video.

Lens:

It is more difficult to guess, but:

VR 70-200 F2.8-update

This lens excellent results in DX and film cameras, but users have reported running properly the problems to advanced FX. Nikon pro zooms are usually updated every six years or, if the goal is appropriate. The D3x out and push the edge of the performance of the lenses longer than the D3 he could get a new version of this lens more.

Updated 85 f1.4 AF-S

A logical selection made next level, where 50mm f1.4 AF-S, which has only been released.

Updated 80-400mm AF-S

Goal is incredibly versatile in a price class where you take a D90 and D60, both owners, the more it has reputation of being slow to focus, then be a good candidate.

With a slow economy, to update the darker lenses are not as useful, it is more important than it has done in recent years. Nikon can choose glass either (a) sell larger volumes recover design / conversion costs more quickly, or (b), which will help sell D3x or other agencies of the central . If you charge $ 8k for the body, you have lenses more easily available to support them.

Overall, the economy, we expect to see more lenses available in more than 2009 in 2008, but suspect Nikon will keep their bodies in the development track for competitive reasons. We will discuss later in the year to see how we did.

He also manages http://www.shopalle.com website, a site dedicated to digital SLR photography, covering the latest news from the major manufactures, including Nikon, Canon, Hasselblad and Leica, and analysis of material, articles, tours and galleries.

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